NMI® at 55.5%; April Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

Business Activity Index at 59.5%; New Orders Index at 58.1%; Employment Index at 53.7%

TEMPE, Ariz., May 3, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in April for the 111th consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The NMI^® registered 55.5 percent, which is 0.6 percentage point lower than the March reading of 56.1 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slightly slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 59.5 percent, 2.1 percentage points higher than the March reading of 57.4 percent, reflecting growth for the 117th consecutive month, at a faster rate in April. The New Orders Index registered 58.1 percent; 0.9 percentage point lower than the reading of 59 percent in March. The Employment Index decreased 2.2 percentage points in April to 53.7 percent from the March reading of 55.9 percent. The Prices Index decreased 3 percentage points from the March reading of 58.7 percent to 55.7 percent, indicating that prices increased in April for the 23rd consecutive month. According to the NMI^®, 15 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector has experienced an uptick in business activity, but in general, there has been a leveling off. Respondents are still mostly optimistic about overall business conditions, but concerns remain about employment resources."

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

The 15 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in April — listed in order — are: Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Construction; Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; Other Services; Wholesale Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Mining; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; and Information.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

• "Several produce products — particularly avocados and celery — are experiencing supply issues that are affecting prices. Prices for these items have increased and will continue to remain high [in retail and wholesale markets] for the foreseeable future." (Accommodation & Food Services)
• "We have increased wages to comply with increases in government-mandated minimum-wage levels. In order to retain production employees, we are going to a weekly payroll system." (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
• "Extremely difficult to fill direct care personnel positions." (Health Care & Social Assistance)
• "Spring selling season is here for residential construction. Sales are coming, but negotiations are now the norm. Traffic is higher than the last three months, mostly due to lower mortgage rates." (Construction)
• "April business has slowed a bit over March, which is typical. However, while January and February were slightly under last year's numbers for the same months, March [brought] a resurgence in orders that continued into April. So, the March and April order levels are significantly higher than last year's. The volume is helping with negotiation for lower prices, while causing backlogs in the supply chain." (Management of Companies & Support Services)
• "We had a general slowing of business activity beginning in February. We initially believed that February's slowness was primarily weather related, but the slowness continued into March and now April." (Wholesale Trade)
• "The outlook for mining capital expenditures looks like it will not change for a while. [We don't] expect much growth, so we keep working with same team and shrinking capex investments." (Mining)
• "We have experienced several cancellations that have significantly impacted the month's revenue. [The cancellations] appear to be attributed to an international business situation — which was the source for the potential revenue." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
• "Business is steady. Recruiting qualified employees has been difficult." (Public Administration)
• "Continuing momentum in most areas. We continue to have pressure finding talent to support open positions. Starting to see increases in building costs due to increases in labor [costs]. Inventory moving well, with deliveries on time." (Retail Trade)

*Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment Indexes. Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.

**Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Aircraft Parts; Bacon; Beef; Construction Subcontractors (2); Diesel Fuel (2); Fuel; Gasoline (2); Labor (7); Labor — Construction (2); Labor — Temporary (2); and Pharmaceuticals (2).

Commodities Down in Price

Steel Products.

Commodities in Short Supply

Catheters; Construction Subcontractors (16); Labor (7); Labor — Construction (37); Labor — Temporary (8); Needles & Syringes (2); and Tubing.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

APRIL 2019 NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

NMI^®

In April, the NMI^® registered 55.5 percent, 0.6 percentage point lower than the 56.1 percent in March and the lowest reading since August 2017 (55.5 percent). The non-manufacturing sector grew for the 111th consecutive month. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.

An NMI^® above 48.6 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the April NMI^® indicates growth for the 117th consecutive month in the overall economy and expansion in the non-manufacturing sector for the 111th consecutive month. Nieves says, "The past relationship between the NMI^® and the overall economy indicates that the NMI^® for April (55.5 percent) corresponds to a 2.4-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis."

NMI^® HISTORY

Business Activity

ISM^®'s Business Activity Index registered 59.5 percent in April, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from the March reading of 57.4 percent. This represents growth in business activity for the 117th consecutive month. Sixteen industries reported increased business activity. Comments from respondents include: "Strong consumer demand" and "Our business activity continues to grow with current customers."

The 16 industries reporting growth of business activity in April — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Utilities; Construction; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Transportation & Warehousing; Other Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; Finance & Insurance; Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Information. The only industry reporting a decrease in April is Retail Trade.

New Orders

ISM^®'s Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index registered 58.1 percent, a decrease of 0.9 percentage point from the March reading of 59 percent. New orders grew in April for the 117th consecutive month, at a slower rate compared with March. Comments from respondents include: "Driven by new customers" and "Major orders received and booked; quoted last year."

The 15 industries reporting growth of new orders in April — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Other Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; Construction; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; Educational Services; Mining; Information; and Transportation & Warehousing. The two industries reporting contraction in April are: Retail Trade; and Real Estate, Rental & Leasing.

Employment

Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in April for the 62nd consecutive month. ISM^®'s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index registered 53.7 percent, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the March reading of 55.9 percent. Ten industries reported increased employment, and six industries reported decreased employment. Comments from respondents include: "Difficult to fill open positions and retain entry-level personnel" and "Recent vacancies have been difficult to fill. Tight labor market."

The 10 industries reporting an increase in employment in April — listed in order — are: Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; Mining; Health Care & Social Assistance; Construction; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Public Administration. The six industries reporting a reduction in employment in April — listed in order — are: Utilities; Retail Trade; Information; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; and Finance & Insurance.

Supplier Deliveries

Supplier deliveries were slower in April for the 40th consecutive month. The index registered 50.5 percent, which is 1.5 percentage points lower than the 52 percent registered in March. This indicates that deliveries are slowing at slower rate in April as compared with March. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: "We have worked with vendors to streamline processes and have added vendors to spread out our volume; this has helped to improve delivery time a little" and "After a bout of inclement weather, supplier delivery performance has returned to normal."

The six industries reporting slower deliveries in April — listed in order — are: Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services; Construction; and Information. The five industries reporting faster deliveries in April are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Finance & Insurance; and Wholesale Trade. Seven industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in April as compared to March.

Inventories

ISM^®'s Non-Manufacturing Inventories Index grew in April after a month of being unchanged, registering 51.5 percent, which is 1.5 percentage points higher than the 50 percent that was reported in March. Of the total respondents in April, 33 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: "[Supporting] the business level" and "Working through our excess inventory slowly."

The eight industries reporting an increase in inventories in April — listed in order — are: Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information; Wholesale Trade; Finance & Insurance; and Public Administration. The five industries reporting a decrease in inventories are: Retail Trade; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Real Estate, Rental & Leasing.

Prices

Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for materials and services increased in April for the 23rd consecutive month. ISM^®'s Non-Manufacturing Prices Index registered 55.7 percent; 3 percentage points lower than the 58.7 percent reported in March. Twenty percent of respondents reported higher prices, 76 percent indicated no change in prices paid, and 4 percent of respondents reported lower prices.

Eleven non-manufacturing industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of April, listed in the following order: Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Public Administration; Other Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Information. The only non-manufacturing industry reporting a decrease in prices paid during the month of April is Mining. Six industries reported no change in prices in April compared to March.

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders

ISM^®'s Non-Manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index grew in April. The index registered 55 percent, which is 1.5 percentage points lower than the 56.5 percent reported in March. Of the total respondents in April, 37 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders.

The 10 industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in April — listed in order — are: Educational Services; Other Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information; and Mining. The four industries that reported a decrease in backlogs in April are: Retail Trade; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; and Wholesale Trade.

New Export Orders

Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based personnel grew for the 27th consecutive month. The New Export Orders Index registered 57 percent in April, which is 4.5 percentage points higher than the 52.5 percent that was reported in March. Of the total respondents in April, 63 percent indicated they either do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The eight industries reporting an increase in new export orders in April — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Mining; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; and Information. No industry reported a decrease in exports for the month of April. Eight industries reported no change in April compared to March.

Imports

The Imports Index grew in April for the second consecutive month. The reading of 55 percent is 3.5 percentage points higher than the 51.5 percent reported in March. Fifty-four percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The seven industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of April are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services; Mining; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Wholesale Trade. The two industries reporting a decrease in imports in the month of April are: Information; and Retail Trade. Nine industries reported no change in imports in April as compared to March.

Inventory Sentiment

The ISM^® Non-Manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index in April registered 60 percent, which is 2.5 percentage points lower than the 62.5 percent that was reported in March. This indicates that respondents believe their inventories are still too high. In April, 24 percent of respondents said their inventories were too high, 4 percent of the respondents said their inventories were too low, and 72 percent said their inventories were about right.

The eight industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in April — listed in order — are: Wholesale Trade; Information; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The two industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in April are: Transportation & Warehousing; and Other Services.

About This Report

DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of April 2019.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of non-manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM^® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation

The Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services).

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The NMI^® (Non-Manufacturing Index) is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

An NMI^® above 48.6 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 48.6 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 48.6 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® survey is sent out to Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on information for the current month. ISM^® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses in order to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM^® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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About Institute for Supply Management^®

Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM Report On Business^®, its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM Mastery Model^®. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® is posted on ISM^®'s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET.

The next Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® featuring the May 2019 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday, June 5, 2019.

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SOURCE Institute for Supply Management